I agree that synbio has some very nasty and rapidly emerging capabilities. However, with respect to your last paragraph are you also assuming that defenses don't improve? Fancy biotech enables better detectors and rapid creation of tailored countermeasures (including counter-organisms). Surveillance tech restricts what students can get away with, sterilization and isolation of environments becomes easier, etc.
However, with respect to your last paragraph are you also assuming that defenses don't improve?
The statements I made were agnostic as to the likelihood of a given event, as opposed to the raw capability of the devices -- that is, beyond saying that it would become a non-zero percent chance. Furthermore; it is generally true that defense is "harder" than offense when it comes to weapons-tech.
I'm woefully underinformed on this topic, but this doesn't seem good at all:
I feel as though I ought provide more commentary instead of just an article dump, but I feel more strongly than that that what I have to say would be obvious or stupid or both, so.