It was just an off-the-cuff Fermi estimate, though, so I wouldn't bet any probability mass on it.
I'm not sure what you mean by "bet any probability mass on it" -- one of the things about probability mass is that it's conserved... -- but there are many cases in which I'd be quite happy to adjust my probabilities substantially and/or make large bets on the basis of off-the-cuff Fermi estimates. The best reason for not basing one's actions on such an estimate isn't that their results are no use, but that one can very often improve them somewhat with little effort.
In this instance, the main reason I'd be reluctant to base anything important on such an estimate is that it seems like improvements in measuring equipment, and/or just measuring for a long time, might be able to overcome the problem. But if the estimate were (1) a matter of what's fundamentally possible, (2) separated from what present technology can do by several orders of magnitude, and (3) apparently quite robust (i.e., the approximations it uses don't look too bad) then it might be entirely reasonable to conclude from it that Pr(WBE in the foreseeable future) is extremely small.
problem: I've read arguments for WBE, but I can't find any against.
Most people agree that WBE is the first step to FAI (EDIT: I mean to say that if we were going to try to build AGI in the safest way possible, WBE would be the first step. I did not mean to imply that I thought WBE would come before AGI). I've read a significant portion of Bostrom's WBE roadmap. My question is, are there any good arguments against the feasibility of WBE? A quick google search did not turn up anything other than
This video. Given that many people consider the scenario in which WBE comes before AGI, to be safer than the converse, shouldn't we be talking about this more? What probability do you guys assign to the likelihood that WBE comes before AGI?
Bostrom's WBE roadmap details what technological advancement is needed to get towards WBE:
Implications for those trying to accelerate the future:
Because much of the technological requirements are going to be driven by business-as-usual funding and standard application, anybody who wants to help bring about WBE faster (and hence FAI) should focus on either donating towards the niche applications that won't receive a lot of funding otherwise, or try to become a researcher in those areas (but what good would becoming a researcher be if there's no funding?). Also, how probable is it that once the business-as-usual technologies become more advanced, more government/corporate funding will go towards the niche applications?