I'm confused by the premise that "Most people agree that WBE is the first step to FAI." "Friendly AI" is, if I'm not mistake, a term invented by EY, and neither he nor the others here have been particularly in favor of WBE in the past. Did you perhaps mean AGI (artificial general intelligence)?
problem: I've read arguments for WBE, but I can't find any against.
Most people agree that WBE is the first step to FAI (EDIT: I mean to say that if we were going to try to build AGI in the safest way possible, WBE would be the first step. I did not mean to imply that I thought WBE would come before AGI). I've read a significant portion of Bostrom's WBE roadmap. My question is, are there any good arguments against the feasibility of WBE? A quick google search did not turn up anything other than
This video. Given that many people consider the scenario in which WBE comes before AGI, to be safer than the converse, shouldn't we be talking about this more? What probability do you guys assign to the likelihood that WBE comes before AGI?
Bostrom's WBE roadmap details what technological advancement is needed to get towards WBE:
Implications for those trying to accelerate the future:
Because much of the technological requirements are going to be driven by business-as-usual funding and standard application, anybody who wants to help bring about WBE faster (and hence FAI) should focus on either donating towards the niche applications that won't receive a lot of funding otherwise, or try to become a researcher in those areas (but what good would becoming a researcher be if there's no funding?). Also, how probable is it that once the business-as-usual technologies become more advanced, more government/corporate funding will go towards the niche applications?