You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

Matt_Simpson comments on Probability puzzle - Less Wrong Discussion

7 Post author: malthrin 28 November 2011 09:33PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (26)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Matt_Simpson 29 November 2011 01:11:11AM 1 point [-]

Well, you could use an improper prior. The measure exists, it just isn't a probability measure. The prior is over the ratio of heads to tails, which is a postitive, unbounded real valued number, so U(0,1) is certainly not appropriate. However, this is certainly not the prior you would use for the correct Bayesian calculation, though it may be useful as an approximation.