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magfrump comments on Probability puzzle - Less Wrong Discussion
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Nffhzvat lbh nobeg nsgre gur svefg syvc gung pbzrf hc qvssreragyl sebz gur svefg syvc rire, lbh erpbhc lbhe fhax pbfg bs $1.33 nsgre svsgrra syvcf (hayrff zl zngu vf qenfgvpnyyl naq jrveqyl jebat; vg qbrf frrz vapbafvfgrag jvgu bguref'...) Fvapr bgure oenapurf fubhyq unir cbfvgvir rkcrpgrq inyhr (v.r. avar gnvyf bar urnqf lbh fubhyq cebonoyl xrrc tbvat) vg zvtug or yrff guna gung. Vs lbh xrrc tbvat nal gvzr lbh unir cbfvgvir rkcrpgrq inyhr, lbh fubhyq rkcrpg gb erpbhc pbfgf nsgre whfg gjryir pbva syvcf.
vg nyfb qbrf abg nccrne gung gur hgvyvgl vf obhaqrq nf A->vasvavgl, ohg vg qbrf tebj cerggl fybjyl. Sbe rknzcyr, gb rkcrpg gb znxr gjragl-svir qbyynef, lbh'q unir gb unir A nyzbfg n uhaqerq.
I used essentially the same strategy as FAWS.