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faul_sname comments on Probability puzzle - Less Wrong Discussion

7 Post author: malthrin 28 November 2011 09:33PM

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Comment author: FAWS 29 November 2011 04:54:58PM *  2 points [-]

This seems to be a good opportunity to use a trick I figured out for approximating the probability of a binary event

That's just Bayesian updating. P(H|E)=P(H)*P(E|H)/P(E)

P(x)=P(H), x=P(E|H), and the integral of the previous step is P(E), since that's the whole point of your probability function.

Comment author: faul_sname 29 November 2011 05:57:36PM 0 points [-]

So that's why it works... I knew it probably tied into Bayes, but I didn't know exactly how.

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