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TimS comments on Several Topics that May or May Not deserve their own Post - Less Wrong Discussion
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Just because I'm curious, what probability would you assign to your hypothesis being correct?
50%. And I'd only do it when I'm irritated. The irritation means they don't care about the answer.
EDIT: Sorry, I mean 50% probability that they won't notice I'm talking nonsense. I don't want to assign a probability to the underlying hypothesis.