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Vladimir_M comments on Several Topics that May or May Not deserve their own Post - Less Wrong Discussion
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It could be that I'm making this mistake. If a native English speaker (including you, if you are one) can confirm that I am misunderstanding the phrase as expressing a higher degree of certainty than it actually is, I will retract that part of the comment.
I am a native English speaker, and have probably used the phrase idiomatically at some point, but I shall not presume to speak for the author of the post.
Looking at the other comments and other examples of the use of the phrase, it does seem like I have made a mistake here, so I am retracting the second part of the comment.