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lessdazed comments on [SEQ RERUN] Two Cult Koans - Less Wrong Discussion
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Whether they're rational or not becomes determinable with moderate certainty.
If they happen to get hit by a meteorite while walking on the sidewalk, they lose, but were not irrational for walking on the sidewalk. If they happen to win the lottery, they win, but were (let's stipulate it is a normal scenario) irrational for playing.
One should evaluate choices by their probable, rather than actual, outcomes. In practice this is very difficult and actual outcomes are a good proxy.
In practice, you don't win the lottery.
I am beginning to suspect that novice rationalists should actually go buy a scratch ticket — do the math, then try it anyway, actually notice that you don't win, that it was a dumb idea (or at least, a money-losing idea) to play, and that this is what a one-in-a-million chance feels like: it feels like losing a buck, 999999 times out of a million.
With one ticket, there is usually something like a one out of fifty chance of winning a few dollars.
That's perhaps even better lesson, if you keep proper accounting.
Winning once in a while, very small amounts, losing on average... when what originally motivated you was an idea of winning a huge amount, which has never happened, and remains so unlikely to ever happen... and yet feeling a desire to continue... that's a very insidious way of losing.