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fubarobfusco comments on [SEQ RERUN] Two Cult Koans - Less Wrong Discussion
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In practice, you don't win the lottery.
I am beginning to suspect that novice rationalists should actually go buy a scratch ticket — do the math, then try it anyway, actually notice that you don't win, that it was a dumb idea (or at least, a money-losing idea) to play, and that this is what a one-in-a-million chance feels like: it feels like losing a buck, 999999 times out of a million.
With one ticket, there is usually something like a one out of fifty chance of winning a few dollars.
That's perhaps even better lesson, if you keep proper accounting.
Winning once in a while, very small amounts, losing on average... when what originally motivated you was an idea of winning a huge amount, which has never happened, and remains so unlikely to ever happen... and yet feeling a desire to continue... that's a very insidious way of losing.