Or is it that AGI is more likely to come before WBE
That's correct, yes.
Or is it that AGI is more likely to come before WBE
That's correct, yes.
I've seen this belief espoused many times. I can't say that I entirely agree with it. Rather -- I don't think there's sufficient justification for the belief. WBE can be achieved agnostic to the fundamental function of the various structures involved in the brain, with regards to how they relate to cognition. AGI requires theoretical, not observational, breakthroughs -- and those are far harder to predict. I've seen 'serious' predictions which peg early WBE around thirty years from now.
I am not at all confident that fully-synthetic AGI will be achieved by then.
If you were a utilitarian, then why would you want to risk creating an AGI that had the potential to be an existential risk, when you could eliminate all suffering with the advent of WBE (whole brain emulation) and hence virtual reality (or digital alteration of your source code) and hence utopia? Wouldn't you want to try to prevent AI research and just promote WBE research? Or is it that AGI is more likely to come before WBE and so we should focus our efforts on making sure that the AGI is friendly? Or maybe uploading isn't possible for technological or philosophical reasons (substrate dependence)?
Is there a link to a discussion on this that I'm missing out on?