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Luke_A_Somers comments on [SEQ RERUN] Stop Voting For Nincompoops - Less Wrong Discussion
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Additional factors to consider, especially for legislative seats rather than presidential:
1) Voting for a third party can increase its recognition and power even without giving it a chance to win
2) If you are in a 'safe district' and would be more aligned with the winning lizard, voting for a 3rd party drags down your lizard's vote margin, making it feel the threat of accountability more credibly.
3) If you are in a 'safe district' and would be more aligned with the losing lizard, voting for a 3rd party may actually be more likely to change the election, as the losing lizard probably has a negative aura effect going on
4) If you are in a 'safe district', whichever side, voting for a 3rd party can limit the effectiveness of Gerrymandering, by limiting the information about true lizard preference (in the event you ever want to pick between the lizards rather than going for a 3rd party)