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fsopho comments on two puzzles on rationality of defeat - Less Wrong Discussion
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I can't believe people apply Baye's theorem when confronted to counter-evidence. What evidence do we have to believe that Bayesian probability theories describe the way we reason inductively?
Oh, if you want to model what people actually do, I agree it's much more complicated. Merely doing things correctly is quite simple by comparison.
It doesn't necessarily describe the way we actually reason (because of cognitive biases that effect our ability to make inferences), but it does describe the way we should reason.