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timtyler comments on Q&A with Richard Carrier on risks from AI - Less Wrong Discussion

16 Post author: XiXiDu 13 December 2011 10:00AM

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Comment author: timtyler 13 December 2011 01:03:18PM *  4 points [-]

P(voluntary human extinction by replacement | any AGI at all) = 90%+

Hmm. Information theoretic extinction seems pretty unlikely to me. Humanity will live on in the history "books" about major transitions - and the "books" at that stage will no doubt be pretty fancy - with multiple "instantiated" humans.

P(involuntary human extinction without replacement | badly done AGI type (a)) = < 10^-20

I don't think that's very likely either, but 10^-20 seems to be an overconfident probability for it.

And even if I were to rank them, extinction by comet, asteroid or cosmological gamma ray burst vastly outranks any manmade cause. Even extinction by supervolcano vastly outranks any manmade cause.

A rather bizarre view, IMHO. I think that only a few would agree with this.

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