Also, it's not like Stalin trying to do something would help the matter. Marshal Timoshenko was struggling to increase Red Army's readiness regardless of Hitler's plans; every month spent in delusion meant a month well-spent by Timoshenko... Forcing the events could easily make the disaster even worse.
I'm looking for historical examples of "flinching away," so I can illustrate the concept to others and talk about motivated cognition and leaving a line of retreat and so on.
The ideal example would be one of motivated skepticism with grave consequences. Like, a military commander who shied away from believing certain reports because they implied something huge and scary was about to happen, and then the huge and scary thing happened and caused great damage. Something like that.
What examples can you think of?