I just had a 17-year-old Less Wronger e-mail me for advice regarding the Thiel Fellowship after reading my application essay from last year when I was 19. We had a long instant message conversation where I gave him a lot of advice which he seemed to find highly useful (my biggest piece of advice was to start teaching himself programming using Learn Python the Hard Way, shamelessly asking for help using a pseudonym on IRC channels, forums, and Stack Overflow if he got stuck).
It seems likely that there are other Less Wrong users who still live with their parents who could benefit from life and career advice. I'm especially interested in reaching those who see reducing existential risk as a major life goal.
A related idea is for people who have some goal they want to achieve, like having a romantic relationship with someone of their preferred gender or being admitted to a prestigious graduate school, to pair up with someone who has accomplished that goal.
So if you're a young person who would like advice, an older person who would like to give advice, a person who wants to accomplish a goal, or a person who has accomplished a goal and is willing to help others accomplish that goal, consider leaving a comment on this post so you can find your counterpart.
I realize this post is a bit open ended--consider it an experiment in tapping Less Wrong's social capital in a novel fashion.
TL;DR: Should I give up my highly risky and possibly even immoral career pursuit and go into charity work or not?
I've spent the last 6 years (from ages 24-30) trying to get into a career that’s incredibly competitive, with little to show for it (I’m purposefully not revealing what it is, so as not to conjure up any biases people may have about it). From what I've read, this is par for the course, and it could easily take a few more years to break in, but the base rate of success is about 1%. Of course, strategizing and training smarter than I have been should theoretically help, but sheer luck definitely does play a factor in this field. In most situations with odds like this (e.g. raffles), I wouldn’t bother betting so much as a dime. Should I not extend that conclusion to my career? (I of course assume that no one on here will reply with “just follow your passion no matter what!” ;-) )
One could argue that, unlike raffles, I’m not risking anything this situation: even if I totally fail, I will have still gained whatever skills and life experience from the attempt, aka even if I lose, I win. However, there are moral considerations:
In 80,000 hours parlance, I would consider this a relatively “unethical” field with middle-class income as the most realistic possibility, and since I don’t have any expertise in any other field, including anything related to charity or high-earning, there’s no reason not to select this profession for moral reasons except for the fact that, as with any business, it takes money to make money. And the idea of spending, say, $2000 for the chance of making a living at this profession versus another seems immoral to me. To translate that into a thought exercise, it’s as if someone is telling me that if I shoot two children in the head (i.e. a conservative estimate of the number of children that money could have saved had I sent it to a charity instead of investing in this risky career), I get to roll a 100-sided die to see if I luck out with my intended career (which will likely pay only just as much as any other middle class career, so there’s no reason to believe I’d be able to make up for that $2000 and save an even greater number of lives, especially since I already intend to give as much as I’m comfortable giving). Since I wouldn’t shoot the two children even for 100% chance of success, I obviously wouldn’t do it just for a 1% chance.
I could theoretically restrict myself to only cash outlays that have a pretty certain certain ROI or only engage in things that require no initial investment, and I know of many people who (as far as I know) succeeded at this business in that way, but I would imagine that that restriction hobbles my chances even more. Although the “even if I lose, I still win” thing would technically still be true, I would think I’d end up getting immensely frustrated with essentially shooting myself in the foot and feel like I was wasting my time and energy that could be more productively spent doing something else.
This seems rather convincing to me (so if you detect any errors in logic, please let me know!), so why am I posting it here? I suppose it’s because something’s holding me back. I can’t cut the cord. I’m still harboring that hope that “I’ll be one of the lucky ones.” I’m like that guy hunched over the craps table at two in the morning after gambling his life savings away saying “just one more roll, one more roll...” I feel like this clinging must be at least partially due to the American “you can do whatever you set your mind to” crap that’s been drilled into my subconscious my entire life. It must also be partially due to the fact that I’ve considered my field the “most importantest thing ever,” as untrue as that may be, ever since I was a kid, which is probably largely due to my father's influence. There’s no other field or job I find interesting, except some charity stuff, but as I said, I have no expertise or training in that, would just be taking a job away from someone else, that’s a competitive field too, etc.
Any advice/suggestions/comments/manifestos?
Thanks! :)
Which of the outlined outcomes would you consider "awesome" (as opposed to good, ethical, right, or virtuous)?