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RomeoStevens comments on Stupid Questions Open Thread - Less Wrong Discussion
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This has me confused as well.
Assume a large area divided into two regions. Region A has slot machines with average payout 50, while region B has machines with average payout 500. I am blindfolded and randomly dropped into region A or B. The first slot machine I try has payout 70. I update in the direction of being in region A. Doesn't this affect how many resources I wish to spend doing exploration?
Are you also assuming that you know all of those assumed facts about the area?
I would certainly expect that how many resources I want to spend on exploration will be affected by how much a priori knowledge I have about the system. Without such knowledge, the amount of exploration-energy I'd have to expend to be confident that there are two regions A and B with average payout as you describe is enormous.