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Armok_GoB comments on Stupid Questions Open Thread - Less Wrong Discussion
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Thats what I try to do, the problem is I end up observing E to be true. And E leads to an "everything" node.
I'm not sure how well I understand the math, but I feel like I probably do...
You don't observe E to be true, you infer it to be (very likely) true by propagating from P and from not P. You observe it to be false using the law of noncontradiction.
Parsimony suggests that if you think you understand the math, it's because you understand it. Understanding Bayesianism seems easier than fixing a badly-understood flaw in your brain's implementation of it.
How can I get this law of noncontradiction? it seems like an useful thing to have.