Huh. Then I guess I didn't understand you after all.
You're saying that in scenario 4, the relevant constants don't change once set for the first time?
In that case this doesn't fly. If setting the constants is a one-time event in scenario 4, and most possible values don't allow for life, then while I ought not be surprised by the fine-tuning given that I observe something (agreed), I ought to be surprised to observe anything at all.
That's why I brought up the small-scale example. In that example, I ought not be surprised by the history of A's given that I observe something, but I ought to be surprised to observing anything in the first place. If you'd asked me ahead of time whether I would survive I'd estimate a .0001 chance... a low-probability event.
If my current observed environment can be explained by positing scenarios 1-4, and scenario 4 requires assuming a low-probability event that the others don't, that seems like a reason to choose 1-3 instead.
You're saying that in scenario 4, the relevant constants don't change once set for the first time?
I'm saying that in all four scenarios, the physical constants don't change once set for the first time. And in scenarios (2)-(4), they are set at the very beginning of time.
I was confused as to why you started talking about changing constants, but it occurs to me that we may have different ideas about how the MWI explanation of fine-tuning is supposed to run. I admit I'm not familiar with cosmology. I imagine the Big Bang occurs, the universal wavefunction ...
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