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TheOtherDave comments on Stupid Questions Open Thread - Less Wrong Discussion
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I didn't really follow this, I'm afraid.
It seems to follow from what you're saying that the assertions "a world containing an observer exists in scenario 4" and "a world containing an observer doesn't exist in scenario 4" don't make meaningful different claims about scenario 4, since we can switch from a model that justifies the first to a model that justifies the second without any cost worth considering.
If that's right, then I guess it follows from the fact that I should be surprised to observe an environment in scenario 4 that I should not be surprised to observe an environment in scenario 4, and vice-versa, and there's not much else I can think of to say on the subject.