When I go to that post on the CFAR site I get a popup window that says:
Security Warning
Do you want to run this application?
Name: Java(TM) Platform SE Auto Updater
Publisher: UNKNOWN
From: http://barbarie.ch
If I hit cancel it goes away and immediately returns. I'm using Firefox 16.0.2.
Looks like the whole blog part of the site is infected.
Edit: I can't pinpoint where the infection is and I can't duplicate it on another computer, but in case it helps, here are the URLs of the jar files it's trying to run:
http://barbarie.ch/pix/jar/java7.jar?r=1069897
http://barbarie.ch/pix/jar/javab.jar?r=313862
http://barbarie.ch/pix/jar/amor1.jar
http://barbarie.ch/pix/jar/amor2.jar
http://barbarie.ch/pix/jar/amor3.jar
http://barbarie.ch/pix/jar/amor4.jar
http://barbarie.ch/pix/jar/amor5.jar
http://barbarie.ch/pix/jar/amor6.jar
http://barbarie.ch/pix/jar/amor7.jar
I'm also putting a link to this info in the "Contact the CFAR Staff" form on the site.
Nate Silver (the NYT quantitative political analyst) and Dave Weigel (the Slate columnist) have started a good tradition, listing their worst predictions of 2011. (Silver also listed his best.)
If any other pundits are doing the same, link them here.