(I took the poll.)
It might also be interesting to try a variant of the "closer to A or B?" question in which you vary A and B. (It could even be done adaptively. Start with A and B far apart. Once you get some consensus, replace the less popular answer with the weighted average. Repeat. Or something like that.)
Good suggestion. Your particular process would have difficulties - eg: the over-estimate answer being very popular could easily (and would with the current results) make the weighted average above the actual value so replacing the lower with the weighted average would make both answers too high.
Many of you will be familiar with the "Wisdom of the Crowd" - a phenomenon where the average result of a large poll of people's estimates tends to be very accurate, even when most people make poor estimates. I've written a short poll to test a small variant of this setup which I would like to test.
Please fill out this short poll.
Specifically, I want to see how the weighted average of the results performs when the question is posed as "is the value in question closer to A or B?" This change is inspired by your usual two-party election where people choose between two extreme values, when many voters have opinions in the middle of the two.
Thank you for helping!
I'm a little worried about anchoring in this survey. Suggestions for how to improve it would be appreciated.