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AlexMennen comments on Singularity Institute Executive Director Q&A #2 - Less Wrong Discussion

20 Post author: lukeprog 06 January 2012 03:40AM

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Comment author: AlexMennen 06 January 2012 04:13:00AM 8 points [-]

In short, the survey participants' median estimates (excepting 5 outliers) for 10%/50%/90% were: 2028 / 2050 / 2150

Why except outliers when stating the median?

Comment author: endoself 06 January 2012 04:49:47AM 3 points [-]

On the first page of the paper about the survey, they say that 5 people believed that there is a less than 90% chance of human-level AI ever being achieved (even barring catastrophes). They did not need to be excluded; you can take the median of a set containing infinities.