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Kaj_Sotala comments on Q&A with experts on risks from AI #1 - Less Wrong Discussion

29 Post author: XiXiDu 08 January 2012 11:46AM

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Comment author: Vaniver 09 January 2012 04:17:56AM 5 points [-]

You (would) have just sentenced humanity to extinction and incidentally burned the entire cosmic commons. Oops.

So, I've heard this argument before, and every time I hear it I like this introduction less and less. I feel like it puts me on the defensive and assumes what seems like an unreasonable level of incaution.

Suppose the utility function is something like F(lumens at detector)-G(resources used). F plateaus in the optimal part of the band, then smoothly decreases on either side, and probably considers possible ways for the detectors to malfunction or be occluded. (There would probably be several photodiodes around the street corner.) F also only accumulates for the next 5 years, as we expect to reevaluate the system in 5 years. G is some convex function of some measure of resources, which might be smooth or might shoot up at some level we think is far above reasonable.

And so the system does resist premature decommissioning (as that's more likely to be hostile than authorized), worry about asteroids, and so on, but it's cognizant of its resource budget (really, increasing marginal cost of resources) and so stops worrying about something once if it doesn't expect cost-effective countermeasures (because worry consumes resources!). Even if it has a plan that's guaranteed of success, it might not use that plan because the resource cost would be higher than the expected lighting gains over its remaining lifespan.

I don't think I've seen an plausible argument that a moderately well-designed satisficer will destroy humanity, though I agree that even a very well-designed maximizer has an unacceptably high chance of destroying humanity. I'm curious, though, and willing to listen to any arguments about satisficers.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 09 January 2012 10:24:30AM 1 point [-]

This is a good point. I'd like to eat something tasty each day, and I know that my chances of being successful at that would be improved if I made myself the dictator of the Earth. But currently there are far easier ways of making sure that I get something to eat each day, so I don't bother with the dicator scheme with all of its associated risks.

Of course, there are various counter-arguments to this. (Some minds might have a much easier time of taking over the world, or perhaps more realistically, might seriously underestimate the difficulty of doing so.)