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Daniel_Burfoot comments on Q&A with experts on risks from AI #1 - Less Wrong Discussion

29 Post author: XiXiDu 08 January 2012 11:46AM

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Comment author: Daniel_Burfoot 10 January 2012 03:02:06AM -1 points [-]

Or, if you have reason to believe that things are not going to be fine it may be appropriate to lower your estimate that humanity will survive the next century

Okay, but this seems to violate conservation of expected evidence. Either you can be depressed by the answer "we're all going to die" or, less plausibly, by the answer "Everything is going to be fine", but not both.

Comment author: wedrifid 10 January 2012 03:36:04AM 2 points [-]

Okay, but this seems to violate conservation of expected evidence.

No it doesn't.

Either you can be depressed by the answer "we're all going to die" or, less plausibly, by the answer "Everything is going to be fine", but not both.

I only suggested the latter, never the former. I'd be encouraged if the AI researchers acknowledged more risk. (Only slightly given the lack of importance I have ascribed to these individuals elsewhere.)

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