Not "like Big Bang, only faster", but "like from Big Bang to today, only faster" or "like from the Roman Empire to today, only faster". Or "like from the first cell to an ape, only faster".
How fast a transformation goes is a matter of a degree inside the possible physics. But if something "evolves" very fast, you can call it FOOM more easily. Only that.
Now, what make me think, that some "intelligent" program could change its hardware as well? And fast!?
Be cause there is no real dichotomy here. Every bit has its physical imprint and every calculation is also a physical process. Nothing forbids quite a large influence onto surrounding matter and a positive feedback.
Does it?
Be cause there is no real dichotomy here. Every bit has its physical imprint and every calculation is also a physical process. Nothing forbids quite a large influence onto surrounding matter and a positive feedback.
Yes, there are things that forbid this. Typically when we design a CPU, one of the design requirements is that no sequence of instructions can alter the hardware in irreversible ways. A reset should really put it back to a consistent state. Yes, it's possible that the hardware has the potential for unexpected alteration from software, but I w...
I am emailing experts in order to raise and estimate the academic awareness and perception of risks from AI. Below are some questions I am going to ask. Please help to refine the questions or suggest new and better questions.
(Thanks goes to paulfchristiano, Steve Rayhawk and Mafred.)
Q1: Assuming beneficially political and economic development and that no global catastrophe halts progress, by what year would you assign a 10%/50%/90% chance of the development of artificial intelligence that is roughly as good as humans at science, mathematics, engineering and programming?
Q2: Once we build AI that is roughly as good as humans at science, mathematics, engineering and programming, how much more difficult will it be for humans and/or AIs to build an AI which is substantially better at those activities than humans?
Q3: Do you ever expect artificial intelligence to overwhelmingly outperform humans at typical academic research, in the way that they may soon overwhelmingly outperform humans at trivia contests, or do you expect that humans will always play an important role in scientific progress?
Q4: What probability do you assign to the possibility of an AI with initially (professional) human-level competence at general reasoning (including science, mathematics, engineering and programming) to self-modify its way up to vastly superhuman capabilities within a matter of hours/days/< 5 years?
Q5: How important is it to figure out how to make superhuman AI provably friendly to us and our values (non-dangerous), before attempting to build AI that is good enough at general reasoning (including science, mathematics, engineering and programming) to undergo radical self-modification?
Q6: What probability do you assign to the possibility of human extinction as a result of AI capable of self-modification (that is not provably non-dangerous, if that is even possible)?