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Viliam_Bur comments on Open Thread, January 15-31, 2012 - Less Wrong Discussion
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a) Listen to them playing.
b) Do they have concerts, CDs, fans, other symbols of "being a successful guitar player"? Do they write blogs or books about guitar playing? Do people write guitar-playing-related blogs and books about them?
The second option is less reliable and easier to fake, but it is an option that even a deaf person can use.
Speaking as a guitar and piano player. I can do things on guitar and piano that are fairly easy, but look very impressive to someone who doesn't play the instrument. You actually need to play an instrument before you can judge how good someone is accurately.
(Obviously, it's pretty obvious if someone is distinctly bad. But distinguishing different levels of "good" is hard.)