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paper-machine comments on The Singularity Institute's Arrogance Problem - Less Wrong Discussion
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I've asked around a bit, and we can't recall when exactly EY claimed "world-class mathematical ability". As far as I can remember, he's been pretty up-front about wishing he were better at math. I seem to remember him looking for a math-savvy assistant at one point.
If this is the case, it sounds like EY has a Chuck Norris problem, i.e., his mythos has spread beyond its reality.
I too don't remember that he ever claimed to have remarkable math ability. He's said that he was "spoiled math prodigy" (or something like that), meaning that he showed precocious math ability while young, but he wasn't really challenged to develop it. Right now, his knowledge seems to be around the level of a third- or fourth-year math major, and he's never claimed otherwise. He surely has the capacity to go much further (as many people who reach that level do), but he hasn't even claimed that much, has he?
This leaves one wondering how the hell would one be this concerned about the AI risk but not study math properly? How the hell can one go on Bayesian this and Bayesian that but not study? How can one trust one's intuitions about how much computational power is needed for AGI, and not want to improve those intuitions?
I've speculated elsewhere that he would likely be unable to implement general Bayesian belief propagation graph or even know what is involved (its NP complete problem in general and the accuracy of solution is up to heuristics. Yes, heuristics. Biased ones, too). That's very bad when it comes to understanding rationality, as you will start going on with maxims like "update all your beliefs" etc, which look outright stupid to e.g. me (I assure you I can implement Bayesian belief propagation graph), and triggers my 'its another annoying person that talks about things he has no clue about' reflex.
Talking about Bayesian this and Bayesian that, one should better know mathematics very well. Because in practice all those equations get awfully hairy on things like graphs in general (not just trees). If you don't know relevant math very well and you call yourself Bayesian, you are professing a belief in belief. If you do not make a claim of extreme mathematical skills and knowledge, and you go on Bayesian this and that, other people will have to assume extreme mathematical skills and knowledge out of politeness.
Yes.
Yes. At various times we've considered hiring EY an advanced math tutor to take him to the next level more quickly. He's pretty damn good at math but he's not Terence Tao.
So did you ask your friend where this notion of theirs came from?
I have a memory of EY boasting about how he learned to solve high school/college level math before the age of ten, but I couldn't track down where I read that.
Ah, here is the bit I was thinking about:
its in the waybackmachine link in the post you are commenting on!
I hadn't read that link before, so it was somewhere else, too.
I don't remember the post, but I'm pretty sure I remember that Eliezer described himself as a coddled math prodigy, not having made to train seriously and compete, and so he lags behind math prodigies who were made to hone their skills that way, like Marcello.