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nyan_sandwich comments on Thinking Bayesianically, with Lojban - Less Wrong Discussion
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Using probabilities is assuming too much information you don't actually know. Probabilities depends on calibration, good math, understanding the massive difference between 98%+1% and 50%+1%, and so on.
I'd use more qualitative measures that could be mapped to quantities if need be. Tautology, strong disbelief, disbelief, weak disbelief, etc.
This is one of the more valuable lessons that using logarithmic decibels, instead of linear probabilities, provides. Going from 98% to 99% adds 3 decibels; going from 50% to 51% adds 0.17 decibels.
Qualitative measures are fine - Lojban even has a 'number' word meaning 'about' ("ji'i"), and even getting a rough feel for the confidence-levels involved can be a step up from not having any idea at all, and is a step closer to having a better calibration for quantitative measures.