You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

DataPacRat comments on Thinking Bayesianically, with Lojban - Less Wrong Discussion

11 Post author: DataPacRat 24 January 2012 06:47PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (66)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: DataPacRat 24 January 2012 09:27:49PM 5 points [-]

understanding the massive difference between 98%+1% and 50%+1%

This is one of the more valuable lessons that using logarithmic decibels, instead of linear probabilities, provides. Going from 98% to 99% adds 3 decibels; going from 50% to 51% adds 0.17 decibels.

Qualitative measures are fine - Lojban even has a 'number' word meaning 'about' ("ji'i"), and even getting a rough feel for the confidence-levels involved can be a step up from not having any idea at all, and is a step closer to having a better calibration for quantitative measures.