I updated my post on this with numbers and links for several more of the attempted replications.
Looking back at this exchange, I want to note that you were able to invert the public empirical data on this question, along with the several other errors elsewhere in this thread, despite (or because of) the overconfidence of your initial claims. Similar things have happened when you have stuck your neck out on decision theory for attentive experts to chop off. You should generalize and a) put more effort into disconfirming your ideas; b) reduce your confidence in seemingly crazy contrarian views backed by vague impressions (lacking good metadata, for instance) from wide-ranging reading.
lacking good metadata
Something interesting happened here; for a few months whenever I doubted my memory it always ended up that my memory was correct and my doubt was needless, so eventually I decided to stop doubting my memory as much and trust it more. As soon as I started doing that is when I inverted the replication results, which implies that the doubt itself was keeping my memory honest. I'm not sure if that should have been the obvious model beforehand.
[Post redacted 'cuz I unfairly and carelessly misrepresented someone's views (Eliezer's). The messages of this post was: disbelief that aliens visit Earth in spaceships is a bad reason not to look into ufology. My apologies for this ugly post.]