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Dr_Manhattan comments on Elevator pitches/responses for rationality / AI - Less Wrong Discussion
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This. I'm skeptical of almost every numerical probability estimate I hear unless the steps are outlined to me.
No joke intended, but how much more skeptical are you, percentage-wise, of numerical probability estimates than vague, natural language probability estimates? Please disguise your intuitive sense of your feelings as a form of math.
Ideally, deliver your answer in a C-3PO voice.
40 percent.