Why is it a counterpoint? What (implicit) conclusion made by Dawkins it contradicts?
Dawkins starts from the premise that there is high uncertainty about the outcome of the case, and concludes that there is high uncertainty about the guilt, which does not follow. Even if it is obvious to everyone that the defendant is very probably guilty, it may be far from obvious exactly how high the jury will estimate the probability of innocence, and where they will set the bar for reasonable doubt.*
*It has never been clear to me where this should be. If I put the credence of guilt at g, should I convict when g>.9? .99? .999? Should I say "to ...
A new article looking at the jury system rationally and scientifically.
Excerpt:
This really struck me as something that could have been on LW's front page.