Ooh I have more pedantry for you:
Many experts and groups have tried to predict AI. Unfortunately, experts often perform little better than chance
When it comes to making predictions, what exactly does "better than chance" mean? Assuming a prediction is in the form of a probability distribution, all we can say is that one probability distribution scored better than another.
Good catch, thanks.
Anna Salamon and I have finished a draft of "Intelligence Explosion: Evidence and Import", under peer review for The Singularity Hypothesis: A Scientific and Philosophical Assessment (forthcoming from Springer).
Your comments are most welcome.
Edit: As of 3/31/2012, the link above now points to a preprint.