Vastly, vastly more likely.
Everyone once in awhile someone sends me a link to an article on wikipedia saying I would find it interesting... and as a matter of fact, I found it especially interesting: I wrote it!
Or, I added a quote to Daniel Kahneman's page that has since appeared in almost every bio of Kahneman that I've seen since. For example, David Brooks wrote a column on Kahneman a few months ago and used the same exact quote I added, so that's millions of people indirectly.
Boggles the mind, really.
Re: publishing.
Self-publishing is easy. As for publishing with a mainstream press, I recommend How to Sell, Then Write Your Nonfiction Book.
Something that might be achievable could be like what Skeptic's Dictionary or You Are Not So Smart did, they started out as websites that slowly filled out and were ultimately published as books.
True, that does work sometimes.
Why isn't there a Singularity Institute Press?
I haven't researched this, but I doubt it would be a profitable distraction from our core work.
Simplification bias-- this one might be standard, but if so, I don't know a usual name for it.
It's mentioned in NLP that people tend to drop "frames"-- if something is said, people will react to it as though the speaker is endorsing it as true, even though the speaker might be mentioning it as something someone else said.
The link describes people treating a possibility as a certainty. One flavor of this is called catastrophizing, but I don't think that sort of simplification necessarily leads to anchoring on the worst possible outcome.
Also conjunction fallacy has been expanded.