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Wei_Dai comments on Predictability of Decisions and the Diagonal Method - Less Wrong Discussion
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I don't understand this answer and cousin_it doesn't either (I just asked him).
If the predictor outputs "one-box", then the agent must prove this if it enumerates all proofs within a certain length because there is a proof-by-simulation of this fact, of length proportional to the predictor's run time, right? I don't see how the diagonal step can prevent the agent from finding this proof, unless it makes the predictor not output "one-box".
The agent doesn't use enough steps to simulate the predictor, it decides early (because it finds a proof that predictor conditionally one-boxes early), which is also what might allow the predictor to conditionally predict agent's one-boxing within predictor's limited computational resources. The M steps where the agent protects the predictor from being unconditionally predictable is a very small number here, compared to agent's potential capability.