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Thomas comments on Slowing Moore's Law: Why You Might Want To and How You Would Do It - Less Wrong Discussion

22 Post author: gwern 10 March 2012 04:22AM

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Comment author: Thomas 10 March 2012 06:01:37PM *  0 points [-]

to dealing with an annoying asteroid or comet are not strongly connected to computer tech level.

I think it is. For to answer the question "What is the minimal action to avert all the near Earth objects for a long time?" - a lot of computing would be needed. And the computed answer might be "Just send a rocket with mass M, at the time T, from the location L, in the direction D, with the speed S - and it will meet enough of those objects and redirect them, to Earth be safe at least for the next 100 years."

If such a trajectory exists at all, it could be calculated with enough computing power at hand. If it doesn't exist, there is a minimal number of them and that could be calculated also.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 10 March 2012 06:50:32PM 4 points [-]

Even if one had near indefinite computing power, making such a calculation would be extremely difficult simply due to the lack of precision of observations. Small changes in the estimated size or trajectory of an asteroid could have drastic results on their long-term behavior. Comets are even more ill-behaved. The limiting factor to such calculations would be at least as much observational as calculational.

Moreover, since large impacts are extremely rare threats, dealing with individual impact threats as they arise is a much more optimal strategy.