= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
gRR comments on Is causal decision theory plus self-modification enough? - Less Wrong Discussion
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (52)
Oh, come on. According to Janes, the marginal probability P(Omega is correct | Omega predicts something) is supposed to be additionally conditioned on everything you know about the situation. If you know that Omega always predicts "two-box", then P(Omega is correct | Omega predicts something) is equal to the relative frequency of two-boxers in the population. If you know that Omega first always predicts correctly and then modifies its answer in 10% cases, then it's something completely different. If you have no knowledge about whether the first or the second is true, then what can you do? Presumably, try Solomonoff induction, too bad it's incomputable.