Viliam_Bur comments on How would you take over Rome? - Less Wrong Discussion
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Vulcanoes, sun eclipses, et cetera are fair game.
Large social phenomena could come a few days / years / months sooner or later, they could have different leaders, different victims, somewhat different endings, etc. (It may be good to bet on possibility of slave rebellion in -70s, but becoming friends with Spartacus may be useless.)