Prediction: Snape's plan will zig-zag in some unforeseen direction (possibly through using Harry as a catspaw by giving him the right info at the right time) so as to save Hermione. Snape knew that the Hermione + Draco friendship was unlikely to survive the scrutiny of Lord Malfoy, so as an ersatz Lily + Snape, he is going to try and help Hermione and Draco by bringing the issue to a head and then resolving it in some brilliant way that this comment space is too narrow to contain.
Estimated probability: ~35%
(I'd say lower probability, but Snape is the obvious villain right now based on what we know about him destroying the notes, so unless he really is the villain, it's a misdirect, and his plan does not involve Hermione getting wand broken/enhanced interrogation/eternal noogies/other undesirable outcome.)
Edit: Disregard this, it was a fun theory, but I think I'm wrong about Snape for reasons below.
I'd say lower probability, but Snape is the obvious villain right now based on what we know about him destroying the notes
Wait, how is this relevant? Destroying the notes is just about cleaning up his SPHEW-related tracks (due to his apparent embarrassment at being a soft touch w/r/t bullying) now that Hermione and her notes are under great scrutiny as possibly being related to her framing.
And in fact, I'd say the notes are evidence against. If Snape had been plotting this all along, one might expect the notes to have been destroyed before the incident ...
EDIT: New discussion thread here.
This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky's Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality and anything related to it. With two chapters recently the previous thread has very quickly reached 500 comments. The latest chapter as of 17th March 2012 is Ch. 79.
There is now a site dedicated to the story at hpmor.com, which is now the place to go to find the authors notes and all sorts of other goodies. AdeleneDawner has kept an archive of Author's Notes. (This goes up to the notes for chapter 76, and is now not updating. The authors notes from chapter 77 onwards are on hpmor.com.)
The first 5 discussion threads are on the main page under the harry_potter tag. Threads 6 and on (including this one) are in the discussion section using its separate tag system. Also: one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten.
As a reminder, it's often useful to start your comment by indicating which chapter you are commenting on.
Spoiler Warning: this thread is full of spoilers. With few exceptions, spoilers for MOR and canon are fair game to post, without warning or rot13. More specifically: