I suggest: (1) all Harry needs is time, (2) Dumbledore refuses to give it to him, (3) Harry offers Lucius an Unbreakable Vow.
In theory, Obliviations and False Memories can be broken, right? So what's Dumbledore's excuse for not insisting on a delay in punishment long enough to attempt to break the alleged tampering with Hermione's brain?
[ETA: actually, doesn't matter whether the spells are known breakable; Harry could experiment with counterspells or just hunt for the real villain. Either way, Harry will be confident that he can get the truth -- given time.]
It seems like Quirrell stands to take away three of Harry's supports - if Harry realizes that Dumbledore won't insist on even a delay in punishing Hermione to test whether she's actually innocent, he's hardly likely to ever trust Dumbledore ever again.
Meanwhile, it seems like the obvious "taboo tradeoff" for Harry to offer for Hermione is some kind of Unbreakable Vow for the Malfoys' benefit - especially since Lucius believes (sort of correctly!) that Harry is Voldemort. That would be fun storytelling, since an Unbreakable Vow for Draco's benefit also shows up in canon. Is there a more appropriate bribe Harry could offer than that?
And would Harry and Lucius actually come to an agreement in such a negotiation, or would Harry's maximum offer be less than Lucius' minimum offer? Since Lucius has Hermione as hostage, it would be tricky, though not impossible, for Harry to simply threaten the Malfoys into handing Hermione over.
But suppose Harry can't make a deal with Lucius, can't contact Quirrell in time, and can't get Dumbledore to take effective action - then what is Harry's best option at this point if he absolutely refuses to let Hermione be turned into a house-elf (or whatever)? Is Harry's best solo option to get to Azkaban on his own and lead out a Dementor army? (I didn't say good, just best...)
Is there a save-Hermione option that would make sense to us that Harry is unlikely to consider?
It seems more natural to have Hermione take an Unbreakable Vow to seek vengeance on Narcissa's killer (ideally with qualifying clauses). This, in principle, would seem attractive to Lucius even or especially if he can't reconsider his theory about Dumbledore (or any of his other beliefs). And I vaguely feel Lucius would worry less about Hermione tricking him than if Harry/Voldemort took the Vow. In any case, this approach to vengeance seems directly related to the trade Lucius publicly declared he would make in chapter 80.
This suggestion might work better ...
EDIT: New discussion thread here.
This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky's Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality and anything related to it. With two chapters recently the previous thread has very quickly reached 500 comments. The latest chapter as of 17th March 2012 is Ch. 79.
There is now a site dedicated to the story at hpmor.com, which is now the place to go to find the authors notes and all sorts of other goodies. AdeleneDawner has kept an archive of Author's Notes. (This goes up to the notes for chapter 76, and is now not updating. The authors notes from chapter 77 onwards are on hpmor.com.)
The first 5 discussion threads are on the main page under the harry_potter tag. Threads 6 and on (including this one) are in the discussion section using its separate tag system. Also: one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten.
As a reminder, it's often useful to start your comment by indicating which chapter you are commenting on.
Spoiler Warning: this thread is full of spoilers. With few exceptions, spoilers for MOR and canon are fair game to post, without warning or rot13. More specifically: