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75th comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 11 - Less Wrong Discussion
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CHAPTER 80 SPOILERS BELOW
Well. We have five days to think of something. This seems to mean that Harry will think of something, and we have five days to guess what it may be. Presumably it will be something in one of the following categories:
I propose we start by making a list of everything in the courtroom:
What do we know about any of these people that Harry might use to sway the crowd?
Context: Harry's dark side is amoral, destructive, will take any available option which leads to its target no matter how it may escalate or what the risks are, and cares about nothing else other than achieving regular Harry's current subgoal. (I'm convinced Eliezer regards the dark side as basically a UFAI.) Emphasis added:
Who are the major players here that Harry can affect? Harry has no hold on the Wizengamot, as I pointed out any threat on Azkaban is more easily dealt with by attacking Harry.
So Dumbledore and Lucius are the keys. What can Harry do with Dumbledore - no matter the cost to Dumbledore, Harry, or anyone else - that would free Hermione? There's little he can testify to, as an Occlumens, so he can't even sacrifice himself (Lucius would refuse it), and it's not obvious how any of his magic 2.0 abilities could somehow convince the Wizengamot that Hermione is innocent or Lucius to let her go - what is he going to do, promise some more magic to an aristocrat who can buy all the magic he wants?
The answer is so obvious I'm surprised that no one seems to have suggested it yet here or in the reviews: Harry can use his leverage on Dumbledore to trade him for Hermione - "tradeoff". Dumbledore practically says as much:
What does Lucius want? Well, he is perfectly clear:
Why would Dumbledore do it? Because he's already half-way to turning himself in (viz his little dialogue with Madam Bones):
and he really thinks Harry is on the path to darkness (in a way few others are, because Dumbledore is one of the only knowers of the Prophecy) and this Hermione incident would be more than enough to turn Harry, convince him that the system is irredeemably corrupt and turn his mission to 'taking over Magical England', as indeed the omniscient narrator tells us Harry has already done to the point of no longer caring about not being called a Dark Lord... Sacrificing himself to keep Harry on the side of good is a good deal. This is consistent with canon Dumbledore losing power and respect, and ultimately dying in the war with Voldemort while working on the Horcruxes to aid Harry's ultimate victory; and for that matter, who replaces Dumbledore as headmaster in canon? A character which just showed up in MoR for the first time ever...
It will come at a major cost - Dumbledore will either be in Azkaban or he will flee or something like that and his entire faction discredited. "Tradeoff".
To me, this is the most compelling scenario, which I give a full 40% probability of having; but I also like the debt (30%/20%) and time-turner strategies (35%), although the latter is more because time-turners are so general and powerful that I have to assume my inability to think of a really solid strategy is my inability alone.
Wasn't that one of Lucius's lackeys from the previous chapters where they watched the battle?
That is the optimistic view of Dumbledore.
It doesn't matter who was the real culprit as long as Dumbledore confesses. He's an occlumens and i would be doubtful if any legilimens can read his mind and find the truth.
Yes, but he won't. Dumbledore's a vastly more valuable piece than Hermione, and he won't give himself up for that paltry of stakes.
He wouldn't be giving himself up for a piece like Hermione, but a piece like Harry.
True, but unless Harry looks like he's about to do something immensely stupid(and the only thing stupid enough that I can think of would be admitting to the Azkaban breakout, which Dumbledore doesn't know about), he's not at risk.
He's already given himself up to the dark side - see his internal narration!
Which Dumbledore also doesn't know about, though he might be able to predict it.
Maybe I'm getting too attached to my own new solution. It does seem to me that getting Hermione to swear an Unbreakable Vow to seek vengeance on Narcissa's killer would work better.
Lucius, we think, does not know what 'Harrymort' wants. If Hermione takes the Vow then Lucius will think he has the answer: "The Dark Lord's been setting up a way to take down Dumbledore, a way that looks like the work of D's own allies." Even if D kills his Muggle-born pawn, that would look suspicious and perhaps lead to his political destruction. Then the noble, grieving-but-honest Harry Potter steps into the vacuum?
A Hermione in the hand is worth publicly backing down and 2 Unbreakable Vows in the bush.
I read that as possibly saying he was half-way to turning Madam Bones, the real culprit, in.
Bones isn't taking the attitude of 'don't turn me in, Albus, you owe me', but 'Albus, don't turn yourself in, you know it's the right thing but the consequences would be too bad'. At least, it's clear to me that Bones is not the bone to be thrown to Lucius.
I thought she might be taking the attitude of 'don't turn me in, Albus, you know it's the right thing but the consequences would be too bad right now'. Read: lose the head of the Aurors as an ally just when Voldemort has become active again, and the rest of the Ministry and Amelia's replacement wouldn't believe Dumbledore about it (going by canon).
Don't forget the phoenix.
I'm pretty sure the solution is as follows (I've already posted it in TV tropes forum). I'm ROT13, if anyone still wants to figure it out: Yhpvhf Znysbl pynvzrq gb unir orra haqre Vzcrevhf ol Ibyqrzbeg. Ibyqrzbeg jnf qrsrngrq ol Uneel Cbggre. Sebz Serq & Trbetr'f cenax jr xabj gung xvyyvat gur jvmneq gung unf lbh haqre gur Vzcrevhf phefr perngrf n qrog. Erfhyg: Yhpvhf Znysbl naq rirel bgure Qrngu rngre pynvzvat gb unir orra vzcrevbfrq ner abj haqre yvsr qrog gb Uneel Cbggre. Ur pna fgneg erqrrzvat.
Point of order: vg whfg fnlf "n qrog", abg n yvsr-qrog.
Also, it would need to be explained why no one ever thought of this before.
Yeah, I was going 'wow, that might actually work' and then it occurred to me that they already discussed whether they had any debts from Lucius they could call in. So unless this is so subtle that no one has ever called in such a debt before, someone must have been holding an idiotball.
EDIT: Logos01 suggests that the debt be invoked of all the Wizengamot members who also claimed to be Imperiused, to swing the vote on whether or not to convict. This might work, but I would personally dislike it as we have no idea how many such people there are.
Gurl qvfphffrq gur npghny qrogf, ohg gurl qvqa'g qvfphff guvf bar, abg rira nf n cbgragvnyvgl, fb V guvax vg qvq whfg fyvc gurve zvaqf, orpnhfr Uneel naq Qhzoyrqber qba'g oryvrir Yhpvhf gb unir orra haqre Vzcrevhf naq guhf gurl pbafvqre Ibyqrzbeg'f qrsrng gb or n oybj ntnvafg Yhpvhf, abg n snibhe gb Yhpvhf perngvat n qrog. Fb, lrnu, V guvax vg whfg qvqa'g pebff gurve zvaqf. Vg qvqa'g pebff zl zvaq rvgure gur jubyr cnfg jrrx, naq V jnf yrff ohfl (gubhtu yrff qrfcrengr sbe n fbyhgvba) guna Uneel be Nyohf jrer.
Lrnu, vg qvq gnxr zr abj bayl 10-15 zvahgrf be fb sbe zr gb pbzr hc jvgu vg, ohg V unq gur fvtavsvpnag nqinagntr bs xabjvat gurer rkvfgrq n fbyhgvba, gung V unq orra tvira fhssvpvrag vasbezngvba fhssvpvragyl sberfunqbjrq, naq gung gur fbyhgvba zbfg yvxryl qrcraqrq ba gur ynjf naq phfgbzf bs zntvpny Oevgnva, nf gur ynfg cnentencu bs gur puncgre vzcyvrf.
Still unusually speculative; we're told previously that an Imperius debt is not a life-debt, so it already has a burden of improbability (did they misspeak or simply mean to imply that a debt of some sort is created without reference to how heavy it is?).
And the latter suggestion, while very clever, has the problem that it requires the numbers to work out, so we couldn't conclude that it will work without numbers, so a fair author will not expect us to work it out without numbers, Eliezer is a fair author, and Eliezer hasn't given us the numbers. (We don't know what the margin for conviction is, or how much of the margin is former Death Eaters who used the Imperius defense, or that they all said it was Voldemort who Imperiused them and not, say, an unknown Death Eater whom Harry did not defeat.)
Well, we'll see in a few days.
Not quite. We're told it's a debt, we don't know what sort of debt it is.
Technically, the numbers don't have to work out - Lucius is the one on who's request the trial be held, If his debt can make him withdraw charges or clear Hermione's debt, that alone should suffice.
Still, while this is a clever idea, it doesn't sound very "Taboo Trade-off" or "Think of the Wizengamot as individuals instead of wallpaper".
How about: invoke Lucius's life debt. Trade it for Hermione's.
You misunderstand, the point is there are 2 possible debt strategies; for one of them, the numbers do have to work out.
I'd say Logos01's strategy exemplifies thinking of them as individuals, actually...
Interesting... Ohg jbhyq univat n phefr erobhaq bss lbh ernyyl ubyq hc nf "qrsrngvat" va n pbheg bs Ynj? Fancr'f nanybtl bs n zna gevccvat ba n onol pbzrf gb zvaq. Fgvyy, vg zvtug yrnq gb na vairfgvtngvba vagb gur znggre, juvpu pbhyq fgnyy guvatf.
V qba'g guvax gung Uneel'f ntr vf eryrinag urer. Abobql qvfhchgrf Ibyqrzbeg'f qrngu jnf qhr gb uvf nggnpx ba Yvyl, Wnzrf, naq Uneel Cbggre; guhf, gur qrog jbhyq or gb gur Aboyr Ubhfr bs Cbggre, bs juvpu Uneel vf gur bayl yvivat zrzore. N qrog gb uvf Ubhfr jbhyq gurersber or n qrog gb uvz.
Great idea, but where's the Taboo Trade off?
Congratulations on correctly guessing (most of) the solution.
motherofgod.jpg
I think you've hit on it. Well done.
Harry didn't hear Hermione's testimony. Therefore, he can go back in time and change it to anything that would produce the audience reaction he saw, without causing paradox.
But since the audience's (extended) reaction includes voting to send Hermoine to Azkaban, how will changing her testimony help?
If he could change part of the testimony to something demonstrably false, that no one else in the room knew at the time, he could prove that her mind had been compromised. Actually changing the memory would be a problem, and it doesn't seem like a likely solution to me, but it's still possible.
I was under the impression that we can actually influence the events of the story based upon how good our ideas are. If I may ask, Eliezer, are we trying to pick your brain for a True ending (something you have written already that we're trying to guess) or are we coming up with a Good one?
In this case the True ending is already written, and anyone who comes up with a better solution than Harry would obviously win points.
Here's mine:
cold!Harry activates his Patronus charm, which depends on the wish to destroy Death, and therefore can be cast while "cold". This is done to disrupt the proceedings by destroying the Dementor. Since Harry never actually did this while at Azkaban, he wouldn't necessarily be associated w/ the prisonbreak of Bellatrix.
In the confusion, Harry cloaks himself, and timeturns back an hour. This is done to give himself time to contemplate exactly what he needs to say and do. Sicne he will be cloaked, this preserves the secret of the Time turner.
(version A) Immediately after destroying the Dementor, and the loop is closed, still-cloaked Harry takes advantage of his ability to get past any guards/defenses and whispers in Parseltongue into LM's ears: "No power can stop me. Even here in the Wizengamot I could reach you. If you do not relinquish your claim on Hermione your son is dead." IF LM doesn't understand Parseltongue, he would at least recognize it, and Harry could repeat himself in English.
Harry Time turns again, and uncloaks in a side hall, intentionally getting himself seen during the same time that cloaked!Harry was threatening Draco's life (the sole real leverage over LM Harry has.)
This is the scenario I view being conducted.
3 (version B): instead of repeating his words in English, he could leave the his mother's potions book at LM's feet, with a note in English that says the same... with the added phrase, "Contained within this manual is the key to a terrible secret that would destroy Dumbledore. You have gained, this day, Lucius Malfoy. I have uses for the Granger child yet. Do not interfere in my plans." This has the added benefit of ensuring that LM is likely to stay quiet about the threat -- because the pot was sweetened in favor of blackmail of Dumbledore by Lucius.
The problem is, that plan relies on Harry realizing that Malfoy thinks he's Voldemort. I don't think he has the evidence to reach that conclusion.
... I genuinely didn't think of the Voldemort angle. That only sweetens the pot. I think that ArisKatsaris's solution is far more effective/elegant than my own. (Especially since it's foreshadowed by the part about how Harry thought of the Wizengamot as 'wallpaper' and that 'this would change'. -- that could be viewed as a dropped-hint that the solution lies in manipulating the votes. I can't think of another way Harry could achieve that than through the former Death Eaters.)
You don't? I think he's already got it subconsciously:
seemed a pretty clear reference to
We're talking about a kid who literally spoke a language designed for a different species without noticing.
True, but that's in canon also. It may just be that instinctive.
Sure, but coming out with a scary voice when he's trying to sound intimidating is a lot less odd than coming out sounding like a snake. If he didn't notice the latter, he's not likely to notice the former, in canon or in MoR.
He has the conversation to interpret. (Also, Dumbledore probably figured that out.)
In addition, he was just recently told
So now that he knows it's theoretically possible...
Edit: I'm an idiot. He's known it was possible since Quirrell told him to pretend he was possessed by Voldemort in TSPE.
But Dumbledore's Patronus can identify Harry's Patronus, and so Dumbledore could find out that Harry was in Azkaban when Bella was broken out.
This would require Dumbledore to have his Patronus out, though.
He certainly might do it if the Dementor started acting oddly. Edit: oops, wrong scenario.
What are you talking about? The scenario under discussion is that Harry casts his Patronus out of the blue, destroying the Dementor.
Oops, right. I got confused from all the suggestions of Harry controlling the dementor in different threads.
Still Dumbledore might get suspicious and bring out his patronus to identify Harry's, but it's an acceptably small risk to take, I guess.
Plus -- would Dumbledore even sell out Harry?
Maybe not to others, but he himself would know Harry had broken Bella out of Azkaban and then lied to him about it. He would definitely force Veritaserum or Legilimency on Harry to find out the complete truth of what happened that day.
In fact, that's a point I haven't considered before. Why haven't Quirrel offered to Obliviate Harry of that day's events, maybe using a Pensieve first? This would protect them both a lot. It makes no sense if what Quirrel wanted was the lost lore of Slytherin that Bella might possess, or even Bella herself for some unknown purpose. But it makes perfect sense if Quirrel just wanted Azkaban to produce the emotional effect that it did on Harry. As a sort of prerequisite for this trial of Hermione.
That would require bringing someone else in on the secret. Quirrell can't cast magic on Harry directly, remember?
Obliviate the third party afterwards?
The third party doesn't need to know what the memories being obliviated are. Just that they're being paid to obliviate everything that happened that day, and that they will be obliviated themselves of this act immediately afterwards.
Harry is an Occlumens. Neither of these strategies would work.
Legilimency would work, he's not a perfect Occlumens yet.
There's no way Lucius will settle for a highly dubious IOU on Dumbledore's head after almost nailing Hermione and suffering a highly visible defeat, so this is not sufficient on its own. There's no need to bring it in.
Of course not. That's why 3B's additional verbiage was supplemental to 3A. So consider everything said in 3A and what's said in 3B, when assigning it a probability of success.
Sure there is. To keep it quiet, thereby allowing Harry to "get away with it." There is no victory like total victory. There is no kill like overkill. And cold!Harry is a Sith: he deals in absolutes.
How does he hold the inner hourglass motionless without disturbing the Unspeakable's protections?
He doesn't need to. He can just walk out of the Wizengamot while cloaked and then walk back in. Each turning gives him an hour, after all, and while he used up his six for the previous day he hadn't used any for the day of the vote itself, as of chapter 80.
What do you mean he doesn't need to? That's the only way to use it before it unlocks at 9pm. Unless you think the trial is after that?
... Harry's already beaten that restriction.
Since when? A while ago he convinced Dumbledore to give him the full six hours rather than two, but I don't think we were ever told that he can use it at will now.
ETA: From Chapter 77, Self-Actualization Aftermaths, emphasis mine:
I seem to have been mistaken. Still; Harry could simply destroy the protective measure.
Quirrell did, I don't think that Harry knows the spell that Quirrell used.
The entire arc is already written, is my understanding.
We should also make an account Harry's capabilities
Not much use if he hasn't figured this out.
If he is, I don't think we know this. He's at the stage of being able to block veritaserum, and thus probably to put up a block to stop anyone reading his mind, but I don't think we've been given any indication that he's reached the point of being able to show false thoughts to someone attempting to read his mind.
I would add that he knows Voldemort is probably alive. If he were to testify by placing his memories into a pensieve, he could show that the Hogwarts inner circle has strong reason to suspect that Voldemort is alive and behind this plot. This might create a measure of doubt among the Wizengamot, at the cost of probably throwing the country into turmoil, so we can call this the Stupid Sentimental Hero Option.
The obvious guess is that Harry will destroy the Dementor in full view of everyone. But this seems far too obvious for Eliezer to taunt us so.
Harry knows nothing about the aurors, the Prophet reporter, Umbridge, Fenrir Greyback (if that's a correct identification), or Amelia Bones.
That leaves
The dementor he can destroy, but that's the obvious answer. Minerva he knows nothing shocking or incriminating about, and I can't think of anything that would help. Same goes for Madam Longbottom, I think.
That leaves
What could Harry say about himself that's shocking? He could confess to his role in the Azkaban breakout, but I can't see how that would help Hermione. None of his scientific knowledge or magical discoveries would impress the Wizengamot, if they could even understand him.
Does he know anything incriminating about Lucius? Well, he knows he was a Death Eater. But Harry is immune to Veritaserum and can't testify.
Is there anything he can do about or with the dementor other than destroy it, which is far too obvious?
He might be able to do something fancy the same way he commanded a dozen of them to "Turn and go and do not speak of this to anyone" in TSPE. Maybe silently tell it to spread the word to its brethren that no Dementor is to go near Hermione? Which still leaves her stuck in a cold metal box for ten years, so it doesn't seem to help much.
Maybe. On the other hand, he's in a hall of people who all strongly believe that Dementors would never do any such thing and will obey their commands.
So you're going with Harry's initial idea, that Dementors are controlled by expectations? If that's the case, then yeah, it probably won't work.
Go in front of it and let the horrible personality possess him again. After making some sort of precommitment, I suppose. This solution was foreshadowed in the omake "Lord of the rationality".
But in truth, I lost faith in Eliezer's ability to come up with realistic solutions when Harry miraculously survived the first dementor attack in Azkaban. He will probably just have Harry use his main character powers again.
I find it odd that Harry made no attempt to contact Lucius, or that that attempt failed, before the trial. Your list is also missing Cornelius Fudge.
The first thing that came to mind was declaring that Dumbledore killed Narcissa, but he doesn't have any evidence for that besides Draco's testimony, which is already fourth-hand.
It is worthwhile to note that Harry is a member of a Noble House too, and so there may be some obligation of Draco to him (remember that time Draco 'tried to kill him' by dropping him off the roof, and he actually was in danger because of the mob of girls?) or Hermione to him (can't think of one there, though). But those don't seem like things that he could easily pull out in the Wizengamot after a vote has been called.
I think the most likely outcome is that Harry does not, in fact, think of something. Hermione is sent to Azkaban, Draco is now his enemy, and Quirrel wins.
If this were the case, then good serial pacing would be to put that at the end of this installment, to leave on a clear down-note.
Leaving it on a cliff-hanger promises some answer to the last question. By the text, it looks like that question is, "How will I save Hermione?" not, "Can I save Hermione?"
Reality does not have to obey dramatic pacing.
A central part of Eliezer's worldview is that it is possible to lose, and lose big. An Al-Ghazali can come along and destroy the bright future of your society. A UFAI can destroy the bright future of your society. A Quirrel can destroy the bright future of Harry Potter.
If the fic is coming to an end soon, which I think has been implied, Harry's implosion and Quirrel's victory are a good place to end things.
(I should clarify that, by "most likely outcome," I mean "more likely than any other specific outcome," not "more likely than its complement." I think there's more than half chance that Harry will think of something, and I think ArisKatsaris has proposed the most likely way Harry will get out of this, but still think it's somewhat more likely Harry will fail than win that way.
Chapter breaks are a meta-aspect not in the story itself. If it were a continual story this might make sense. Dramatic pacing of the story elements with a bad ending wouldn't be an in universe lesson but an out of universe lesson. Also, I suspect that Eliezer is smart enough to realize that having a downer ending would likely turn off a lot of people to rationality who might otherwise be take some interest in it simply from the halo effect. Having a downer ending would substantially undermine that.
What did Al-Ghazali do, exactly? Wikipedia isn't illuminating.
I didn't read the wikipedia article fully, and so didn't notice that it only hinted at the primary reason he was important.
The Islamic Golden Age, from ~750 to ~1250, was the period where Islam was the intellectual center of the world. Many Greek texts only survived because they had been preserved by Muslims and/or translated into Arabic, and scholars living in Muslim lands (Muslims, Christians, Jews, and atheists) were at the forefront of science, mathematics, and philosophy. Baghdad was the commercial and intellectual center of the world. Francis Bacon may have formalized the scientific method, but the main advance in empiricism before him came from al-Haytham, six hundred years earlier.
Al-Ghazali was an influential thinker who said that the Greek philosophers were ignorant infidels and that science and mathematics were dangerous because they could lead to loss of faith.
Ibn Rushd, famously depicted in the School of Athens, argued against Al-Ghazali- that the Greeks made valuable contributions, that science and mathematics were valuable. He was too little, too late; Muslim opinion swung Al-Ghazali's way, though a few Europeans took Ibn Rushd's arguments seriously, like Thomas Aquinas (who was also heavily influenced by Al-Ghazali, but agreed with Ibn Rushd's conclusions).
Al-Ghazali, essentially, was the intellectual standard-bearer for the movement to replace openness and inquiry with closedness and faith in the Muslim world. He can't be entirely blamed for the collapse of the Islamic Golden Age, as both the barbarous Christians and Mongols were beating on the doors, but that Islam never really recovered as an intellectual force appears to be centered around him.
(Neil de Grasse Tyson tells this story here (3:24), though he simplifies it somewhat.)
Is there a book you'd recommend on the thinkers of Al-Ghazali's time? The only one that came up for me in a quick Google on his name was a screed with all the hallmarks of cherry-picking history to support a point of view about present-day politics.
I am not an expert in Islamic philosophy, but if I come across such a book I'll point it your way.
And yet, he did an entire arc about the role of a hero and supporting characters. I don't think we can be sure that his decisions won't be influenced by story concerns.
Of course his decisions are influenced by story concerns: the way to make the point "this is not a story" is to do it in a sickening matter. Let people pattern-match on "this is the bleak moment where Harry will do the impossible and win," and then reveal that the impossible is, in fact, impossible.
(Note there is a problem with the "you have five days to come up with a solution" approach if EY has taken this plan- EY would have to be pretty confident that no plan existed to hope that fans would not come up with one.)
Read above. There is a True End planned and pre-written.
I am aware. My point is that if you say "X is impossible" and then someone points out a way to do X, you now have a plot hole / have to admit that the fan is cleverer than the character or author. That's genre savvy evidence against the prediction that EY will say "X is impossible," whereas "he would end the chapter on a downer" isn't because he would get the desired effect more strongly if he ended the chapter on a cliffhanger, and then had the character fall off the cliff.
This would be interesting. And then, Harry goes there in the next hour, destroy all the dementors and save Herminone.
A happy ending.
Destroys the dementors by destroying himself? Destroys the dementors, and lets out the criminals of wizarding Britain? Destroys the dementors, and is put down for rebellion?
There are no happy endings down that path.
As I said below though, these plans all share one common feature - they suck. I can't think of one that isn't either vanishingly unlikely or obviously stupid, and too stupid at that to be used even by a despairing child trying to save his girlfriend from a fate asymptotically approaching death.
Love of all human life does not translate into an inability to do math or unwillingness to murder.
As well, it's not clear that guilty Hermione feels good enough about herself or all human life that she would be able to cast it.
It's not a likely case, just less IMO unlikely than the others I listed. I'd put the odds at perhaps 10-20%. The rot13'd answer is the one I think is solidly the most likely.
You don't need that particular spell to commit mass murder. Harry would likely use transfiguration or napalm. That said, Harry-who-can-murder is not Harry-who-can-Patronus.
I am impressed that you managed to avoid listing any of the members of the "crowd" as things in the courtroom.
I wonder where Quirrell has been all this time. Maybe he can show up to save the day.
In custody at the Ministry. Unlikely to be released before trial is concluded.
The person in custody is not necessarily Quirrell, or "unlikely to be released" can be circumvented a number of different ways. The only way the Quirrell is just sitting in custody is if that's what he wants, and I still think he's sort of a Byronic hero.
Well, the simplest explanation is that he's sitting in custody because he doesn't want to be in Hogwarts while Dumbledore scans it for Tom Riddle's soul with the Map, etc. If he doesn't have a particular plot to carry out during the trial, it's easiest to stay in custody then too, until the Aurors choose to release him after the whole matter is considered closed.
If he wanted, he could almost certainly leave, I agree. But why? If this whole thing is his plot, it's going on well enough without him, and on the other hand he possibly can't be officially present at the trial (unless invited by Dumbledore) to rescue it if something goes wrong. OTOH, if it's not his plot, it would still seem to align with his interests - he has more to gain by offering Harry to help rescue Hermione, once Harry has declared the government etc. his enemies, than he does by offering Harry to help sway the trial.
(removed after the parent comment was changed)
I think that person was just being helpful and pointing out a flaw in the reasoning :D