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MarkusRamikin comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 11 - Less Wrong Discussion
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What I wanna know is what Lucius even thinks is going on. What his mental model of the situation is. It's unclear to me. A plot by Harrymort to inoculate future Death Eater and trusted lieutenant Draco against pro-muggleborn ideas by having him severely disappointed in Hermione? Well maybe not, but surely a man with that much control and intelligence is thinking something rather than just blindly grasping for revenge...
My mental model of Lucius says he believes...
Harry is Voldemort (Who is still strong in some ways but weak in others)
Harrymort has been trying to split Draco from his father.
Harrymort has been using a new ideology to recruit Draco.
This new ideology is incompatible with the previous ideology.
Harrymort has no use of his old allies as he hasn't let them in on anything and he's using an incompatible ideology.
Harrymort's gathering of power and allies/minions (eg Hogwarts students) will take at least a decade to come to fruition.
Harrymort is in a weak position right now and in danger of losing a key piece. (Hermoine would be his Bellatrix.)
Harrymort seems to be on Dumbledore's side in the court room and ideologically.
So, assuming Lucius isn't just acting on rage, he's decided to align himself against Harrymort and with whoever it is that's attacking him. Perhaps he's hoping that he can destroy Harrymort soon enough before he becomes invincible withe the passage of years. Perhaps he hopes by aligning the House of Malfoy against Harrymort publicly, whoever attacked his son won't target him again and risk losing the Malfoy's support. Perhaps he thinks Harry is strongly allied enough to Dumbledore to lie to Lucius. Although I'm more of the mind that he's acting on blind revenge, or at least it's clouding his vision enough to make poor choices at the moment.
He might think that Harrymort is toying with his son for pure amusement, Bellatrix-style; or that Dumbledore set Hermione on Draco.
But he can punish Hermione as a demonstration of his ferocity now, while he waits and hopes to find the real villain later.
Lucius probably knows that he doesn't know enough; on that he agrees with Harry. The difference is that he doesn't see that as a reason to let Hermione off; he sees Hermione as at least an opportunity to send a message to his real enemy, whoemever he is, not to take the House of Malfoy lightly.
Who benefits from Draco being anti-muggleborn? It's not Harry, it's Lucius.
In the short term. If Harry is Voldemort and one day intends to reveal himself and get his followers back, though...
If Harry hadn't been trying to "turn" Draco, then Draco would have been firmly anti-muggleborn all along.
Most likely, yeah. Still, Harrymort would then be able to look at the new Death Eater Draco as his own handiwork instead of Lucius', and that's something that might appeal to the Dark Lord.
No, I didn't mean that to be a terribly plausible theory, just couldn't really think of what Lucius might be thinking that would make better sense. I now agree with most of what Daniel Starr said.
Voldemort lost with those supporters; he may as well change his ideology, get new supporters, and the old ones that know which way the wind is blowing will come back anyway.