Xachariah comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 11 - Less Wrong Discussion
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My mental model of Lucius is here.
The summary of it is that Lucius thinks that Harrymort has turned sides and is now psuedo-allied with Dumbledore. Lucius thinks he's just aligned himself on the weak side of a 2-on-1 secret war against the two strongest wizards alive, but he has no choice because they both want to destroy him.