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Crux comments on Nonmindkilling open questions - Less Wrong Discussion
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Maybe whether we'll encounter intelligent life from another planet sometime within the next century?
By encounter, do you mean receive messages from? Because as far as I know the chances of us ever leaving the solar system without any sort of Superintelligence are slim.
I mean anything involving us learning of their existence. Receiving messages from, observing from far away, actually coming into physical contact with, or anything else that would mean they exist.
So I guess the question is whether we'll find out there's intelligent life elsewhere in the universe, and specifically whether we'll do so within a certain time frame (such as a century).
This seems like a good example of what Yvain is looking for because there's no common political or social signaling incentive (right?), it seems pretty up in the air, it's sort of a fun question for most people, it's common, etc.