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Manfred comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 12 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Oh, just thought of something. Narcissa's murderer could be not Dumbledore, not Bones, but Voldemort, if she was working as an informant. This gives Dumbledore ample motive to say something like "I killed her" to Luscious, and might be reflected by some sort of evidence kept in Dumbledore's hidey-hole, like a burnt piece of Malfoy-themed jewlery.
Also, can you make a portrait with arbitrary personality traits? How about a self-improving painting factory?
Even if Dumbledore didn't kill Narcissa, he would still have a motive to take credit for doing so: to discourage Death Eaters from targeting family members of his allies.