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anotherblackhat comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 12 - Less Wrong Discussion
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It's not reasonable that Hermione would be unprotected. Everyone in the order of the phoenix knows how to cast a patronus and send it to someone else, and Harry could do a lot more than just protect her from Dementors if it came to that. Plus the chief auror has already said that the aurors wouldn't stand for a 12 year old being exposed to Azkaban, about the only way I can see Hermione being in Azkaban is with 24/7 patronus guards. Anything else leads to open revolt.
I can't conceive of something being inconceivable.
Well if she's going to spend 10 years like that, better turn it into an Occupy Azkaban movement and bring in lots of books so she can study and a Floo portal so she can talk to her friends and she'll tele-graduate Hogwarts with all honors.
S.P.O.D.
What's that mean? Google doesn't help.
If Hermione went to school at Azkaban her "Society for the Protection of" options are limited.
Upvoted just for saying the phrase ‘Occupy Azkaban’, which makes me feel all tingly inside, or maybe it's the coffee. (I pretty much never drink coffee, but I'm catching up on MoR discussion and there's kind of a lot of it. I may make some odd comments over the course of the next few hours.)
Surely if that were an option, the families of those in Azkaban would have been doing the same already. I'd go along with Quirrell on this - no one but Harry would stick their neck out for Hermione. She doesn't even have wizarding family.
Lucius implied that those who wouldn't stand for it would be replaced, and that shut Bones up. I don't see open revolt by anyone but Harry.
Sure, all the prisoners who have family/friends in the order sufficient to provide 24/7 support, that believe the prisoner is wrongfully imprisoned, and have the support of the Aurors are already being protected. The rest have to make due with the occasional visit and bribe their way past the aurors.
They would of course believe it to be a temporary solution, just until they can commute Hermione's sentence to a lighter/more appropriate one, but as the saying goes; "there's nothing more permanent than a temporary solution."
Everyone in the Order of the Phoenix plus Harry plus Draco isn't a lot of people. It's easily possible that none of those people know anyone in Azkaban that they think is innocent. Actually, for all we know Dumbledore was motivated to find a way to send Patroni to other people by his father being in Azkaban.
Didn't they start checking whenever there's a patronus for more than three hours, to prevent innmates becoming animangi?
I suppose that it's possible that they'd turn a blind eye to Hermione.
Yeah, but if the caster isn't right there, what are they supposed to do about it?
I'm not sure, but I'm sure they'd have something they can do. There's nothing else keeping someone from slipping a prisoner an animangus potion, leaving, and then casting a patronus there after they leave.
There may be some kind of counterspell, or a way to find the caster.
There doesn't have to be something they can do. Up until recently, there was nothing stopping someone from slipping a prisoner an animagus potion and just standing right there with a Patronus up. It's entirely possible that no one in the DMLE has even considered trying to find a way to prevent this, since (as far as they know) the only ones capable of it are the Order of the Phoenix.
Only because they chose not to stop them.
In that case, they will start trying once it starts happening. How long do you think they'll take?
Do you understand that "otherwise, there's a way for Azkaban to be less terrible" is not actually a reason to believe there exists a counterspell to the Patronus?
True, but "otherwise, there's a way for Azkaban to be less inescapable" is a reason to believe they'll put a lot of effor into developing some kind of countermeasure.
I agree with this. I still do not agree with "I'm sure they'd have something they can do." The Patronus Charm may as a question of simple fact not be blockable or traceable. The world is allowed to work that way.
It's definitely not completely untraceable, but creating a registry of all patronuses would be next to impossible.
It seems unlikely that there's no way around it, but I suppose it's feasible that they'd just have an easier time finding a way around animangi. At the very least, they can do what they did with Grindlewald.
That's reassuring. However, people who punish tend to not be mellow about their chance to be inflict misery being snaffled away from them.
So, if Hermione is in Askaban but immune to dementors, now what?
That just proves inconceivable things exist! :-)