anotherblackhat comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 12 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Is this supposed to be proof positive that Dumbledore is Santa Claus? A nod, and an empty statement?
A nod means "Yes" in English-speaking countries, so I'm sure it's supposed to be as much proof positive as Dumbledore saying "Yes".
I don't think we have any reason to doubt Dumbledore's word on this.
nod --- I see.
I'd say p>0.9 that the second Santa Claus note was Dumbledore. That said, remember that Harry told Dumbledore about the first note(that came with the Cloak), so he could have interpolated accordingly and made a fake. Santa #1 could still be someone else.
Well, yes. That, and every single one of Dumbledore's reactions to Harry when he's explaining the Santa Claus notes.