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Anubhav comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 12 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Mind spelling them out for those untutored in the Dark Arts?
IIRC Lucius' catspaw (perhaps multiple), Dumbledore's behavior towards Lucius (Lucius rejects it for being too obvious + a gambit to get more out of it rather than compromise early.)
That's exactly the same behaviour we'd see if he really did just want to put the girl in Azkaban.
brinksmanship doesn't work if no one believes your threats are actually plausible.