Its the only solution I've seen that proves Hermoine innocence AND gains Harry an advantage. I think it was foreshadowed back in Self Actualization.
That's a ridiculously high confidence based on the data available. My models don't even assign it higher than a low number. 0.2 sounds right; I would be a least four times more surprised if that happened than if it didn't. Unless your models of E.Y. are dramatically better than the rest of us, and are providing additional evidence, I don't think you can possibly justify that level of confidence rationally.
The new thread, discussion 13, is here.
This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky's Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality and anything related to it. With three chapters recently the previous thread has very quickly reached 1000 comments. The latest chapter as of 25th March 2012 is Ch 80.
There is now a site dedicated to the story at hpmor.com, which is now the place to go to find the authors notes and all sorts of other goodies. AdeleneDawner has kept an archive of Author's Notes. (This goes up to the notes for chapter 76, and is now not updating. The authors notes from chapter 77 onwards are on hpmor.com.)
The first 5 discussion threads are on the main page under the harry_potter tag. Threads 6 and on (including this one) are in the discussion section using its separate tag system. Also: one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven.
As a reminder, it's often useful to start your comment by indicating which chapter you are commenting on.
Spoiler Warning: this thread is full of spoilers. With few exceptions, spoilers for MOR and canon are fair game to post, without warning or rot13. More specifically: